Sales forecasting is important in every industries. Whenever we do best in predicting the sales amount, we can use sales forecasts to better anticipate needs and order products as well as identifying potential problems they may need to remedy. In the following, we have four different strategies that currently using in restaurant industry.
Existing Business Calculations
Some menus in restaurants always repeat week after week as unable to get enough of the tasty treats on the menus. If restaurants that have these repeat customers, they should use retention statistics to determine the likelihood that these die-hard patrons will continue to frequent the restaurant. To engage in this type of forecasting, restaurants must identify and monitor repeat customers and chart their visits, identifying patterns. For example, if the restaurant notices that some frequent customers visit more often during dinner, they can use this information for forecasting purposes.
Growth Indications
Some growing restaurants often use growth statistics to forecast their future sales. To determine growth statistics, restaurant owners must monitor their sales and complete calculations, in order to determine how much their sales increase each month. If they can notice a relatively consistent pattern of increase such as the sales appeared that it grew five percent each month, the restaurant owner can use this growth as a standard, assuming the same growth for subsequent months and projecting several months into the future with this figure.
Seasonal History
Season is another major indicator for restaurant. If the restaurant owner can notice the pattern that appeared in different season, they can use the seasonal statistics to forecast the sales. For instance, customers may want to eat some kind of food like hot pot which can make themselves warmer during winter but not summer. By reviewing sales data from the same season of the year prior, restaurants can better anticipate weather-related sales shifts.
Trends Research
Restaurant owners just entering the arena, with no personal data on which to base their forecasting, can use trend data to project their potential sales. For example, if a restaurant owner seeks to open a French restaurant, he can do some research in this particular industry and gain some sales information from other restaurants of his planned type in similar communities. He can then base on this information to forecast his sales, giving himself a better idea as to what sales figures he can realistically expect.
Food Cost Control Process
Menu Planning & Standard Recipes
It is good to have a recipe for items shown in the menu. The recipe would be very useful if it contains the standard costs for each ingredient. It can be used for comparing the theoretical and the actual costs spent. Therefore, it helps to measure the cost of each item in the menu and the overall food cost.
Purchasing System
First of all, we would determine the product specification for the food purchases based on the recipe and cooking methods of the menu items. It can be the standard of the purchase and to make sure the price is reasonable for certain product specification. Then, each restaurant should have their own par stock in their purchasing system. When the inventory is actually used to some level, it will remain you to reorder. It helps controlling the amount of ingredients purchased and the costs needed. It can also help to prevent food shortage and wastage.
Receiving Process
Every time when company receives the inventory, it is essential for the senior level staff to ensure the accuracy of the deliver such as the right quantity and quality. This action is not only to ensure the accuracy of deliver but also a way to prevent future lost. It is because if company does not check the deliver consistently, suppliers may probably provide you inferior quality or less quantity as ordered which will cause to the higher food cost.
Storing/Issuing
There are several important things must be planned. Firstly, the company needs to decide whether to keep the stock records or not and for how long. Secondly, the company has to compute the cost of food consumed by considering the actual purchase price, weight average price, inflation price, etc. Thirdly, stocktaking should be considered. Finally, introduction of essential clerical procedures used to decide who is responsible for writing the requisitions, for how many copies, etc.
Food Production
The restaurant needs to give instructions to the cooks to ensure that foods are served in exact portions. Besides, a compressive training and develop program is essential for the staff. It is because increase knowledge of employees will increase the overall performance on good and services and also reduce waste. Moreover, expediter is reminded to pay attention on portion control, so as to prevent excess food sent out on each plate. On the other hand, for those restaurants that use an order pad rather than POS system, every order pad must be account for and allocated to food servers in order to minimize the problem of missing order copies.
Inventory Cycles
Food inventory level is important matters to concern as it determine the quantity of food that the restaurant can produce. Therefore, a weekly or monthly physical inventory count is essential to determine the actual food consumed during a period of time. It is important to make sure that the inventory is count in accuracy, so that the number of cost of sales can be derived from the inventory level.
Accounting & Reports
Accounting for income and expenditure is necessary for the company to determine profit or loss. Therefore, a proper accounting process is needed in food cost restaurant financial reports, so as to determine whether the expenses are in line appropriately, and if not, how to fix and solve the problem effective and efficiency. Besides, a uniform system is needed to prevent small amount of waste or theft on daily transactions.
Reference:
http://www.ehow.com/info_12166336_kind-sales-forecasting-use-restaurant.html
http://www.losangelesrestaurantconsultant.com/managing-restaurant-food-costs/food-cost-control-system/
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